关于第一个合作项目的建议

Discussion in 'Philosophy and Strategy' started by lq77., Aug 9, 2005.

  1. 应有这种实时进度通报贴,以相互鼓励。

    另:表格,图表怎样处理呢?
     
  2. 欢迎啊!

    进度由您决定,大约一天一页,不算快。

    第九章页数不多,等您上手后再自愿加码,好吗?

    另有问题可跟贴,大家一起解决。

    谢谢合作!
     
  3. 欢迎!!!人多一点才有可能把NO.1项目完成。我的第4章我会集中一段时间完成它。
     
  4. 表格和图表开始也让我头痛,后来我找了一个软件,用它来处理表格方便多了。只要往里面添中文就可。图表直接贴图到word即可。

    软件名称:“ABBYY FineReader 7.0 Professional 破解版”
    可到华军软件园搞一个。
     
  5. 谢谢,先记下,待译完后统一处理。
     
  6. Total Net Profit
    This performance statistic is the brass ring that most inexperienced strategy developers reach for. You might think that a strategy that maximizes profit is the way to go. If you had Bill Gate’s net worth, this would be true. Most traders have limited capital and must monitor risk at all times. What’s wrong with a strategy that makes $100.000 and has a $50.000 draw down? Doesn’t the end justify the means? The one question that you must ask yourself when looking at the performance of such a system is “ When did the draw down take place?” Did it happen right off the bat when you only had $10,000 in trading capital? Or did it happen after you have an additional 100K in the bank? If you don’t have at least $50,000 in trading captital, then forget about it and go on with your search. Also, this statistic tells you nothing about how the profits were distributed through time. Would you trade a strategy on a market that made all of its money over a short period of time while it lost or was dormant for the rest of the test period? Which is better—A strategy that makes$75,000 in the Nasdaq futures, or a strategy that makes $35,000 over the same time period in soybeans. If you were to ask us this question, we would say the soybean strategy, Sure it only makes 46 percent as much as the Nasdaq system, but it did it with a market that has one tenth or less in dollar moves. This implies a heck of a lot less risk. When you are developing strategies, use this statistic as a benchmark and not an absolute goal. Of course, you want a strategy with a positive expectation, but let’s use this statistic in concert with other equally important statistics.
     
  7. 长征第二步

    Maximum Intraday draw down
    This statistic is equally important as Total Net Profit. However, the importance is somewhat deluted if you are planning on trading a diverse portfolio. Maximum draw down (or should we refer to this as meltdown) is calculated by finding the highest peak in the equity curve and substracting the subsequent lowest through in the curve. How much money did an account value go down before the account made a new equit high? There are two forms of maximum drqw down: closed trade and open trade. Closed trade draw down occurs after a trade is closed out, and open trade draw down occurs while a trade is still on. Let’s say you are trading a long-term U.S. bond strategy and that you have a short position when the FED announces a surprise cut in interest rates. Assume the surprise rate cut causes the bond futures market to rise three full point by the end of day. By this time your account value has dropped $3,000. You have just experienced an open trade draw down of $3,000. Let’s go a little futher with our hypothetical scenario. The next morning after a few hours of rumors, gossip, and information digestion, the bond market gaps down a full point and over the next few days trades back down to your entry price. The next few weeks the bond market trades in a range and you finally get out of the position with a $500 loss. You have just experienced a closed trade draw down of $500. Which figure do you think is more important? The open trade draw down is more importance to the trader with $2,000 than a trader with $40,000. We feel that the maximum open trade draw down prpares a trader for the worst-case scenario. TradeStation reports maximum draw down in this manner. Total Net Profit equates to reward, whereas Maximum Draw Down equates to risk. As a strategy developer and trader, you should try to maximize the risk to reward ratio within your financial boundaries.
     
  8. lq77兄:
    天气渐趋中秋,我已换紧身马甲,备寒。

    希望我的第十章能在国庆结束时完稿。

    是否能考虑让其他现无人领译的章节留着别动,好让新朋友加入我们的队伍,这样对完成以后或许会出现的新任务会有帮助。

    我的顾虑:我们的翻译质量是否能出版?中文版在翻译人员内部传阅是否有意义?电子版在网络上公开是否会让人侵占?对我们翻译水平的挑剔我们是否会心情不太好?

    我的信心:会提高我们对中文和英文的理解与翻译。
     
  9. 有意思。

    http://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/首页
     
  10. 1 如果有出版的想法,需要及早着手,尽早与出版社联系出版事宜
    2 翻译质量不用担心,起码是懂股票的人在翻译股票的书,君不见根本不懂股票的人翻译的书也在大行其道吗
    3 现在出版正规途径有:一,出版社看上书稿;二,自己承担一部分风险。更多的了解可与长阳联系,他操办过几本这样的书。建议找他,他路子已经铺开
     
  11. 各位好,一事相求,下面这断话是第9章的其中一段文字:
    a percent change value is calculated by TradeStation for each bar on the chart by subtracting the average price of each bar from the closing price of the anchor bar and dividing this value by the closing price of the anchor bar.

    我所理解的这句话是:一个bar的百分值是这个bar的平均价格减锚点bar的收盘价,然后除上锚点的收盘价所得值。可是这和下文相矛盾,锚点价格为100元,锚点30天后的收盘家是125,那么30天后的这个bar的百分值就是25%。

    而且omega的帮助当中给出的函数是

    PercentChange(PRICE,LENGTH)

    很显然与平均价关系不是很大。不知是我的理解有问题还是原文不对。

    刚刚接触ts,请多指教。
     
  12. Account Size Required and Return on Account
    You will probably notice that the Account Size Required statistic is the same as the Maximum Intraday Draw Down. Basically,TradeStation is stating that an account should be funed by the amount that the system has draw donw on a historical data. We feel this is inefficient. The industry rules of thumb for funding a trading account is two or three times maximum draw down. You may be wondering, why double or trible the worst-case sceniro to come up with the starting capital? If a system has been tested over many years, then should’t the future maximum draw down fall in the range of historic parameters? The type of thinking is what makes many stock and futures traders fail within the first year of trading. You must understand that historic performace statistics have the benefit of hindsight. Any system or indicator develoment requires a certain level of curve fittin. Curve fitting is the testing, changing, retesting process that a developer goes through to produce a winning system. There is nothing wrong with this, unless you go overboard. Curve fitting customizes a trading idea to historic data. The more you curve fit, the more you force history to repeat itself into the future. You may have thought the maximum draw down was the worst-case scenario, when in fact you were looking through rose-colored glasses. With this in mind, you should capitalize a trading account sufficiently to endure more than just the historic maximum draw down. Again, the lack of diversification analysis rears its urly head. Remember when we touched up this subject and demostrated that overall maximum draw down can be reduced by trading diversified markets; this figure does not take diversification into consideration. If you were to trade ten different and diverse markets, should you go through and add up the individual maximum draw downs to caculate the initial account funding? We think this is overkill and a nonefficeint use of capital. We know we just said that the figure alone is not sufficient enough to fund a trading account, and now we are saying that if you sam up all of the maximum draw downs it would be overkill. Recal through that we did state if you were trading a diverse portfolio, this summation of maximum draw down would be inefficient use of capital. If you are trading four foreign currencies, then it may not be a bad fomula of initial capital allocation. For these reasons, we feel this statistic is basically useless. The Return On Account also into the useliss camp,.
     
  13. All Percent Change charts require that you specify an anchor bar. This is
    the bar from which all percent change calculations are made. The anchor bar
    can be the first bar of the chart, the last bar of the chart, or any bar that you
    may select between the first and last bars. Once an anchor bar has been
    selected, a percent change value is calculated by TradeStation for each bar on
    the chart by subtracting the average price of each bar from the closing price
    of the anchor bar and dividing this value by the closing price of the anchor bar.
    For example, if the price of a stock at the anchor bar was $100 and the price ten days ago was $90, then the relative price on the percent change chart for the bar ten days before the anchor bar will be displayed as –10%. If the price 30 days after the anchor bar is $125, then the percent change chart will display +25% on that bar.

    从上下文看,作者在此处用“平均价”并无不妥。请注意红色字符。
    包括所举的函数例子中的“price”都可以由作者设定。不一定就是收盘价。
    ----我未读第九章全文,回复仅供参考。
     
  14. 接上贴:

    不知你是否发现,倒是作者这段话的表达另有一处很容易引起误解,就是“subtract sth. from...”(从...减去[扣除]某物),从后文举例来看,有不相符合之处。此处建议按所举例子的意思翻译为好。

    仅供参考。
     
  15. 老大中秋前夕换马甲,长袖换成短袖,好快活啊!

    老大的建议有利于我们扩大队伍;

    老大的顾虑提示我们要尽可能地保护小组成员的权益;
    至于挑剔绝对是好事,老毛说过,“只要你说的对,我们就照你的办...”我个人的译文绝对欢迎大家挑剔。您说呢?我在TS专栏发的请教贴,至今还无人应答,此帖在“The Traderclub Forum”也发了,Chuck LeBeau先生的回答也是很勉强,他怀疑其中有某些“typo",故无法解释。再不行我只有发函向原书作者请教了。

    老大的信心就是我的信心。读书不在泛而在精(纯个人观点)。

    顺祝合作小组的朋友们中秋快乐!
    海洋的所有朋友们中秋快乐!
     
  16. 明白了,感谢。
     
  17. 一天一小点进步,也很好

    This statistic is the average profit or loss that you can expect on any given trade. The key word is expect. If you trade a statistically significant number of times and take the average your profits (or loss), then you should come close to this figure, theoretically speaking this is. You could rely more on this statistic if back testing did not incorporate the benefit of hindsight and trade results were normally distributed. Nonetheless, normal distribution statistics are what we have and we must use what we have. The importance of this statistic increases with the number of real-time trades; the assumption of distribution doesn’t go away, but the benefit of hindsight lessens. Of course, the higher the average trade, the better. Many traders incorrectly place more emphasis on percentage of winning trades than they do on average trade. Intuitively, you may think a system that doesn’t have at least 50 percent wins is a loser. This is not the case. In fact, most profitable trading systems have much less than 50 percent winners. Of the following two systems, which would you trade?
     
  18. 一天进步一点点

    Maximum Consecutive Winners and Losers

    These two statistics are used more as psychological tools than analysis tools. Consecutive losers are, from the psychological standpoint, the aspect of trading that forces most traders to call it quits. Can a typical trader sit through 15 consecutive losing trades? It doesn’t matter that the trades don’t add up to be a big loss. It’s the loss in confidence that gnaws away at your trading plan. If you can live with historic consecutive losses plus a few more and the other performance statistics are within your risk-reward parameters, then you know that you may have a good fit with your system.
     
  19. 我希望有新人认领新的翻译任务其实也是无奈之举,因为仅靠现在的几个人,老实说没有多少意义,即便有20个报名的,能坚持下来的估计不会有1/3。
    现在,我的唯一希望的意义是:通过翻译这本书,能使我们更好的了解TS的内部情况,也同时对证券上的事情有更多的了解(初看一本书,自以为懂了,那不是我希望的,我不喜欢这样看书),至于出版我仔细思考后,觉得没有可能,翻译质量和资金还有销售量是个问题,至于内部传阅没有意义,至于网络传布我非常不愿意,因为近来的风波使我非常不喜欢将文章落入小人之手。
    总结:对证券上的事情有更多的了解是这个任务唯一带来的符合当务之急的好处,但考虑到事半功倍,除非有个小组,集中精力做好事情,否则凭经验我认为也要失败的。
    请兄弟仔细考虑我的意见。
     
  20. 我觉得还可以学到:建立盈利交易系统的标准思考模式及大家的建立交易系统的过程。
    更能体验到:在此领域建立相互合作的困难。以及脚踏实地做好一件事情所需要的付出(为什么人们都喜欢精品呢?那是因为那里确有别人真实的付出)。同时深切地感觉到国内证券研究与国际水平的实际距离和思维方式上的壑沟。