My Position Sizing Software Experience By Van K. Tharp, Ph.D.

Discussion in 'Risk and Uncertainty' started by hylt, Feb 6, 2007.

  1. My history of working with position sizing software involves first working with Trading Recipes (which was DOS based and would do some basic position sizing, but nothing that was based upon making a decision with time). Correct me if I’m wrong, but my understanding is that Trading Recipes is pretty obsolete now and that if Bob Spear has anything new, he’s just working with a few select clients.
    I then worked with a software developer to develop our own position sizing software, Athena. Athena was great in that it did everything that is described in the Money Management Report. It wasn’t so great in that it was expensive ($12,500) and the developer really didn’t support the traders who bought it. I owned 50% of the software and helped the developer sell the software. However, all the money went to the developer and I eventually just gave back my share of the ownership. Athena, as far as I know, is also no longer a viable option.
    We did a workshop with Athena once, and it became clear to me that it was very easy to optimize position sizing algorithms to fit past data. Thus, I became convinced that if you could adequately determine the population of R-multiples that your system generated that simulation was the way to go to find the right “position sizing” algorithm to meet your objectives. However, even that is a problem because simulation assumes that 1) your R-multiple distribution is accurate, 2) that you only make one trade at a time, and that 3) you do not have a large portfolio of correlated positions that could all go against you at one time. I have a great simulator that I love, but the Van Tharp Institute is not a software company. This means that my staff could never begin to solve the technical issues that would come up if we sold the software on any level that made economic sense.
    As a result, I’m a bit perplexed about helping people solve the issue of getting the right software for research that will really handle position sizing and a portfolio of trades. Traders are always asking me, “What software do you recommend for position sizing?” And, at this time, I really don’t have the answer. First, any software that is relatively inexpensive would have to meet the needs of what the average trader wants, which is 1) to optimize and 2) to find the perfect investment vehicles. In my opinion, these biases would turn that software into fairly useless software.
    The second option for those with trading businesses is to develop customized software to run your trading business and this ends up taking a lot of time and costing more than most traders can afford. Thus, the software situation is very messy, at best.
    I’m always getting asked to review new software, and I’m not interested in doing that because I don’t have the time or the inclination. I’d only make an exception if I thought the software was truly exceptional and would really help my own trading research.
    The Problem and a Request
    So here is the problem: I’m currently finishing up a new book, The Definitive Guide to Expectancy and Position Sizing. In order for that book to really be “definitive,” I believe I have to at least address the software issue. Thus, I’m devoting one chapter of the book to the topic. So perhaps you can help.
    What software do you use for position sizing? What, in your opinion, are the strengths and weaknesses of that software? I’m looking for real users who really know the software to share their opinion about what they are using. If you have such software, please let us know what it is and what your experience using it has been like.
    What I’m looking for is about a 1000 to 1500 word review of your software. What does it do? What doesn’t it do that you wish it did? Does it handle R-multiples well? Why do you like it? How much programming skill is required to use it properly? What’s automatic and what requires programming? What’s the situation with data for this software? How easy is it to use?
    If you’d like to write such a review about a software please let us know what the software is and when we can expect your review. Ideally, I’d like it within the next two weeks as this is the only incomplete chapter in the book If I use your review in the book, you’ll get a free copy of the book when it comes out and, if you’d like, an advanced copy of the book to comment on.
    If you are interested, email book@iitm.com
    Thanks,
    Van K. Tharp
     
  2. 好啊,不知道那个征文到期了没有,如果没有,老大赶快写些东西过去,说不定可以拿到那本书,呵呵,那样我们都有福气了看了。