对冲基金大佬:做投资管理 机器将很快取代人类

Discussion in 'Model and Algorithm' started by novaavon, Jan 26, 2015.

  1. 管理89亿美元资产的对冲基金BlueTrend总裁Leda Braga预计,传统的投资方式可能很快面临“系统”电脑模型的严峻挑战,随着这种管理技术成本降低,效率提高,人类基金经理的一些工作岗位会被裁撤。这是业内人士对机器技术革新会改变金融业从业格局的最新警告。

    据英国《金融时报》报道,Braga表示,系统电脑模型算法未来会成为对冲基金管理的主流方式。她将这种变化的趋势类比为钟表业的改变,称“现在还有工匠制表的一席之地。但如果真想以高效的方式知道时间,你就要买一块电子石英表了。”

    Braga去年专门成立了一只利用上述电脑算法交易的对冲基金Systematica Investments。她认为,电脑系统无法达到人类基金经理解读市场环境和心理的水平,但人类经理永远无法像系统算法管理基金那样追踪大量信息。上述报道援引Braga评论称:

    “我们的股票基金交易4500只股票,人类很难追踪并管理这么多股票的风险。”

    上月彭博预计,对冲基金业去年全年平均回报仅2%。彭博报道还援引芝加哥对冲基金研究机构的数据推测,去年清盘的对冲基金将突破千家,成为2009年以来业内表现最差的年份。而在行业普遍表现不佳的环境下,去年BlueTrend的回报率达到12.7%,成绩突出。

    去年10月华尔街见闻文章提过机器人顾问这种在线财富管理服务对金融业的威胁。两家标榜为机器人顾问平台的美国公司收取费用均明显低于业内水平。文章称:

    Wealthfront公司对第一笔1万美元不收任何费用,之后的管理费用为资金的0.25%。Betterment公司则收取0.15%-0.35%的管理费,具体比例取决于资金的规模。这两家公司对ETF投资额外抽取0.15%的分红费用。
    投资者的成本加起来不高于0.5%,这比业内通常1.5%-2%的标准费用低的多。

    上述文章警告,如果计算机算法提供的金融服务可以满足大多数投资者的需求,投资业可能会遭受利润缩水之痛,就像印刷行业一样,甚至有可能更糟。

    机器人顾问的业务已在迅速成长。上月华尔街见闻文章援引金融服务业研究机构Corporate Insight的分析数据称,自去年4月该机构首次收集相关数据以来,11家在机器人顾问领域领先的机构管理资产增加了65%,管理规模增至190亿美元。
     
  2. BlueCrest to Spin Off Computer-Driven Hedge Funds into New Company

    One of Europe’s biggest hedge fund managers BlueCrest Capital Management, announced it will spin off its computer-driven hedge funds into a separate company to focus on its flagship products.

    The computer-driven fund, BlueTrend, is run by the Brazilian-born Leda Braga, 48, one of the most prominent women in the hedge-fund industry and a former lecturer in engineering at London’s Imperial College. The fund was flat in 2011 and 2012 before losing 11.5% last year, according to people familiar with the matter. Investors, including U.S. public pension fund Calpers, have walked away.

    This year, the fund has gained 9% through August and cut investor fees. Having managed as much as $16 billion last year, the people said, the fund now manages about $8.4 billion. Since launching just over 10 years ago, BlueTrend has returned more than 11% on average a year.

    BlueTrend is expected to transition into a new company—Systematica Investments—Jan. 1, the firm told employees this morning. BlueCrest will have a minority stake in the new firm, which will be controlled by Ms. Braga and her team.

    Source: Wall Street Journal
     
  3. BlueCrest spins off trend-following fund

    The head of BlueCrest’s quantitative trading division is leaving the hedge fund to set up a new $9bn investment manager, removing one of the most important parts of the $27bn hedge fund founded by the British billionaire Michael Platt.

    BlueCrest said $8.9bn of assets managed under its so-called systematic trading strategies will be taken over by a new company called Systematica Investments which will be majority owned by Leda Braga, current head of the division, and her staff. BlueCrest will retain only a minority economic interest in the new company.

    Systematica Investments will house BlueTrend, the $8.3bn trend-following fund and one of BlueCrest’s best-known funds, as well as a smaller fund known as BlueMatrix. Both were built up by Ms Braga after she was recruited by Mr Platt in 2001. About 100 BlueCrest employees will leave with Ms Braga, who will remain based in Geneva.

    The announcement came as four out of 18 portfolio managers of BlueCrest’s $900m equity fund left the company, including Jonathan Larkin, head of US equities. BlueCrest said the staff left for performance reasons.

    BlueTrend suffered its worst year in 2013 since being launched in 2004, dropping by 11.5 per cent. It has generated compounded returns of more than 11 per cent a year over its history.

    The effective demerger cements Ms Braga, a Brazilian who holds a doctorate in engineering from Imperial College London, as one of the most prominent women in the hedge fund industry after she built up BlueCrest’s quantitative strategies over more than a decade.

    Mr Platt will remain in charge of BlueCrest’s remaining $17.8bn of assets, focusing on its two main AllBlue and BlueCrest Capital International funds. BlueCrest told its investors about the split during a conference call on Friday.

    Ms Braga said the creation of the company would allow her and her team to concentrate solely on systematic hedge fund strategies, which involve using complicated algorithms and computer-driven trading styles to make money from identifying patterns across financial markets.

    “This is the logical next step in the development of the systematic part of our operation,” Ms Braga said. “We get to feel a bit like a start-up but be a large fund from day one.”

    She added that large systematic funds such as BlueTrend were likely to benefit from ongoing pressure from investors over hedge fund fees, which traditionally have charged them 2 per cent of their total investment as a management fee as well as 20 per cent of any profits made.

    “Investor pressure on fees and transparency may be a problem for some but it favours us, we are very scalable and can respond to that positively,” she said.

    Trend-following funds have suffered from poor performance in recent years, with industry insiders arguing that ultra-low interest rates have altered the relationships between different financial instruments that such funds have typically identified to make money from.

    More recently such funds have recovered some poise, with several being among the best performing hedge funds in the world this year. BlueTrend has risen 8.9 per cent in the year up to the end of August, while BlueMatrix is up by 5.1 per cent over the same period.
     
  4. 可惜机器最终还是被人“控制”的:D:p
    机器只是人的工具而已。
     
  5. 虽然路上的汽车是由人开的, 但有车的路上已无法容的人漫步了。
     
  6. 机器永远也不能全面代替人类
     
  7. 这个比喻真好!
    但是驾车容易发生车祸,走路有时候安全一些:)
     
  8. 无论什么,总是盈利和亏损的考量, 人和机器都是工具。 只是人的大脑更换有些麻烦的不确定