Pimco Is ‘Large Overweight’ on China, Predicts Earnings Growth in Region 中国6个月内第四次加息，促使世界大的银行的战略家纷纷推荐世界最快发展经济体（中国）的股票。瑞士信贷提升了恒生中国企业指数的12个月的预测。汇丰控股提升中国评级至“超配（overweight)“，麦格理集团（Macquarie）认为投资者应该提升持股。花旗建议买入期权来从升势中获益。 在这些推荐之前，高盛上个月发出看涨预测，德意志银行表示有信心--温家宝的中国政府将会抑制始于2008年的快速通货膨胀，而不会使经济增长偏离轨道，世界银行预测中国经济2011年会增长9% 恒生中国企业指数的市盈率（本益比）或者H股指数是22%，低于5年的平均值，而之前（去年）利润飙升了32%。该指数超越了彭博社调查分析人士的预期。
Pimco Is ‘Large Overweight’ on China, Predicts Earnings Growth in Region Pacific Investment Management Co., manager of the world’s largest mutual fund, is buying Chinese stocks on the prospect for earnings growth as monetary tightening eases. The emerging-market equity fund has a “large overweight in China,” where financial and property stocks are attractive and Pimco has a “favorable view of the yuan,” said Maria Gordon, who was hired last year to manage the fund. An underweight rating in Brazil reflects “better value elsewhere,” and some shares in India and Turkey are “likely to become cheaper before they start to rise,” she said. China’s fourth interest-rate increase in six months, announced April 5, spurred strategists at four of the world’s biggest banks to recommend stocks in the fastest-growing major economy. Credit Suisse Group AG boosted its 12-month forecast for the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, HSBC Holdings Plc increased its rating on China to “overweight,” and Macquarie Group Ltd. said investors should lift holdings. Citigroup Inc. advised buying options to bet on gains. “This is the space wherein companies trade at a significant discount to their net asset values,” Gordon, formerly a portfolio manager at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. “We look for companies that may have been affected by cyclical adversity, where the earnings story is likely to be better once the story is normalized.” Bullish Forecasts The recommendations, which follow bullish forecasts last month from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Deutsche Bank AG, signal confidence that Premier Wen Jiabao’s government will curb the fastest inflation since 2008 without derailing growth in an economy forecast by the World Bank to expand 9 percent in 2011. The price-earnings ratio of the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, or H-share index, is 22 percent below its five-year average after profits surged 32 percent last year, beating analysts’ estimates, data compiled by Bloomberg show. “We’ve seen 18 months of macro-prudential measures under way,” said Gordon. “We’ve also seen the reflection of those worries in the equity market.” The gauge of 40 Chinese companies listed in Hong Kong, known as the H-share index, has dropped 0.1 percent since the People’s Bank of China began raising interest rates in October, trailing an 8 percent gain in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. When China’s borrowing costs increased a similar amount from October 2004 through March 2007, the index jumped 113 percent. ‘Upside Potential’ Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. raised its share-price estimates for Chinese banks in a report yesterday, saying lenders may extend recent rallies on first-quarter earnings. The Hong Kong-traded shares of Chinese banks including Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd. “still have about 10 percent upside potential from the current valuations in the near term,” after outperforming the market by 8 percent to 9 percent since mid-February, analysts including Mike Werner and Wangshu Qiu said in the report. China’s currency has strengthened 1.1 percent versus the dollar this year, following a 3.5 percent appreciation in 2010. Pimco EqS Emerging Markets, the fund managed by Gordon, is part of a push into equities by Newport Beach, California-based Pimco, which has been synonymous with bond investing since it was co-founded by Bill Gross four decades ago. ‘Structural’ Growth Emerging-market nations have “very significant structural growth opportunities” and “strong-trend earnings growth” in comparison with developed-market peers over three to five years, Gordon said. “Bubble and risk have faded partly because of the worries about the mid-cycle rebalancing,” she said. The MSCI emerging-market index has climbed 3 percent this year, trailing a 4.5 percent gain for advanced-country shares. China’s Shanghai Composite Index has risen 8.6 percent this year, after losing 14.3 percent in 2010. India’s Bombay Stock Exchange Sensitive Index has fallen 4 percent, while Brazil’s Bovespa Index has declined 3.4 percent. In Brazil, there’s “clearly a disconnect” between “the amount of infrastructure and its growth rate it is exhibiting,” Gordon said. “When the output gap closes you’ll have inflationary pressures. So we’re experiencing the need for that mid-cycle rebalancing.” Gordon said her fund also has holdings in Kazakhstan, where there are “stock-specific opportunities.” To contact the reporters on this story: Belinda Cao in New York at lcao4@bloomberg.net; Sara Eisen in New York at seisen2@bloomberg.net To contact the editor responsible for this story: David Papadopoulos at papadopoulos@bloomberg.net
世界上人口最大国曾经看衰美国等资本主义国家，现在也没见怎么地~ 投行报告，大多是抄的，要么是因为自营被套，想解套。所以先国外忽悠，但是只能影响香港和其他地区中国概念标的。但是国内的机构会相信，然后再出报告忽悠散户，这样国内机构和散户都动了，市场真的才有可能起来。然后国外的解套，欢欣雀跃，私下骂国内的“sb”（不雅词汇，引用）。
我同意你的观点，就是金融市场需要有自己独立的观点，买者自负。对于巴菲特，索罗斯等，我们需要自己独立的分析。但是，合理的分析我们也不妨借鉴。 投行的分析部门和自营部门互相利用也是可以理解。不过作为世界最大债券基金，我认为是可以借鉴其合理的分析。
债券基金，又不是投行券商咨询，没事儿出什么报告呢~不自己偷偷赚钱~ --- 另外中国宝安那个手法，年代痕迹很重，90年代的，应该背后是老手，但不是高手，从那个访谈看对方公司运营总监，行为分析她知道内情，也就是说，整个管理层都知道~证监会不查而已，要差没有查不出来的。另外，经济相关，如果撤上人命，就不好了，管理层和相关券商及证监会还是注意人身安全比较好。