虽然为了能够盈利对胜率没有太多的要求，但是高胜率有其特殊的魅力，至少心理承受压力可以小一些。Mark Weinstein的胜率高的惊人99%+，而且不是赚1个点亏100点的那种，盈亏差别可能不大。当然为了挑选出胜率非常高的交易，肯定会过滤掉很多赚钱的机会。下面是从 Jack Schwager 的market wizards中摘取了一部分，大家可以去看完整的访谈。 Mark Weinstein - High Percentage Trader（market wizards ） ...... Well, let's put it this way: What was your worst single trading month? I haven't had any losing months. You have made money in every single month since 1980! , Yes. Of course, I could have made a lot more money if I wasn't so cautious, but that is the way I trade. Do you remember your worst losing week? I haven't had any losing weeks during that time, but I have had some losing days. That is an incredible statement. How can you be sure that you are not simply forgetting about a few weeks when you lost money trading? The reason I am sure is that I remember all my losses. For example, I have had three losing days in the last two years. Out of the thousands of trades I made during that time, I had 17 losers, but nine of them were because my quote machine was down, and when that happens I just get out of my position. Most traders would be happy winning on 50 percent of their trades, and a win ratio of 75 percent would be spectacular, yet you are implying that your win ratio is somewhere in the vicinity of 99 percent—that is really hard to believe. You can check with Leigh. I told him about hundreds of my trades during the past few years. [Leigh Stevens is a mutual friend who introduced me to Weinstein.] OK reader, I know what you are saying: '"No losing weeks, but I've had some losing days.' Give me a break." Frankly, I admit Weinstein's statements sound preposterous. I could not verify his claims by examining account statements because his partners are vigorous in maintaining the confidentiality of the partnership's trading activity as it is a private trading firm, not open to the public. In fact, a number of his partners were adamantly opposed to this interview and were nearly successful in dissuading Weinstein from participating. The only account statement Weinstein was willing, or able, to show me was his independent entry in the option trading contest, which did indeed confirm that he multiplied a $ 100,000 account ninefold in three months with 100 percent winning trades. Still unsatisfied, I spoke to Leigh, who has known Weinstein for years and has spent many days watching him trade. I have known Leigh for three years and can confidently describe him as honest, low-keyed, and levelheaded. Leigh confirmed that of about 100 of Weinstein's trades he had personally witnessed and several hundred more Weinstein told him about on the phone (right after he put them on), he could remember only one that was a loser. Even if because of faulty memory (I mean this literally, not as a euphemism for dishonesty), Weinstein's actual percentage winning rate is somewhat lower than he implies, I still believe his win/loss ratio is incredibly high. How can he do it? Weinstein's own response to this query follows, but to put it in perspective, I thought some further elaboration would be helpful. Weinstein employs his own custom-designed state-of-the-art computer systems to monitor constantly technical indicators designed to measure changes in market momentum. Rather than use the standard values for these indicators, Weinstein uses his own values, which he frequently adjusts for changing market conditions. He combines this intensive real-time analysis with comprehensive chart analysis incorporating a variety of methodologies, including cycles, Fibonacci retracements, and Elliott Wave analysis. Finally, add to this one last essential ingredient: an uncanny sense of market timing. Only when nearly everything lines up right and he feels the timing is virtually perfect does he put on a trade. He passes up many trades that he believes have a high probability of working, but for which he lacks the same degree of near absolute confidence. Because of the combination of a lifetime devotion to studying the markets, intensive real-time analysis, innate market sense and incredibly rigorous trade selection, virtually all of Weinstein's trades are at least marginally profitable at some point within twenty minutes of entry. That is all Weinstein needs to assure a breakeven or better result. It helps to understand that Weinstein usually plays for quick profits and covers his trades within hours or even minutes. Even on position trades, Weinstein will usually take some profits quickly to assure a net profitable outcome. He also trades markets in rotation, quickly shifting his profits from market to market, always seeking the profit potential with the lowest perceived risk. Finally, Weinstein enjoys the support of a floor network that often puts him on the right side of the bidasked spread. Weinstein's comments may sound like boasting on the written page, but that belies their tone— naiveté would be a much closer description. When Weinstein talks about trades, his comments are peppered with phrases such as, "It's obvious the market is going lower," "This market is so easy." It is clear he has no conception of how difficult trading is for the rest of us. How do you explain your ability to win such a high percentage of the time? Because I have a real fear of the markets. I have found that the greatest traders are the ones who are most afraid of the markets. My fear of the markets has forced me to hone my timing with great precision. When I am trading properly, it is like a pool player running racks. If my gut feel of market conditions is not right, I don't trade. My timing is a combination of experience and my nervous system. If my nervous system tells me to get out of the position, it is because the market action triggers something in my knowledge and experience that I have seen before. I also don't lose much on my trades, because I wait for the exact right moment. Most people will not wait for the environment to tip itself off. They will walk into the forest when it is still dark, while I wait until it gets light. Although the cheetah is the fastest animal in the world and can catch any animal on the plains, it will wait until it is absolutely sure it can catch its prey. It may hide in the bush for a week, waiting for just the right moment. It will wait for a baby antelope, and not just any baby antelope, but preferably one that is also sick or lame. Only then, when there is no chance it can lose its prey, does it attack. That, to me, is the epitome of professional trading. When I trade at home, I often watch the sparrows in my garden. When I feed them bread, they take just a little piece at a time and fly away. They keep on flying back and forth, taking small bits of bread. They may have to make a hundred stabs at a piece of bread to get what a pigeon gets at one time, but that is why a pigeon is a pigeon. You will never be able to shoot a sparrow, it is just too fast. That is the way I day trade. For example, there are times during the day when I am sure that the S&P is going up, but I don't try to pick the bottom, and I am out before it tops. I just take the mid-range where the momentum is greatest. That, to me, is trading like a sparrow eats. Am I paraphrasing you correctly? The cheetah is your analogy for position trading and the sparrow is your analogy for day trading. The common denominator is that both animals wait for can't-lose circumstances. Exactly. How do you pick your trades? I use many different types of technical input: charts, Elliott Wave and Gann analysis, Fibonacci numbers, cycles, sentiment, moving averages, and various oscillators. People think that technical analysis is unreliable because they tend to pick the one thing they are comfortable with. The problem is that no single technical approach works all the time. You have to know when to use each method. How do you do that? It is experience and gut feel. I use all forms of technical analysis, but interpret them through gut feel. I do not believe in mathematical systems that always approach markets in the same way. Using myself as the "system," I constantly change the input to achieve the same output—profit! Is there anything you can single out as the most important element in deciding to put on a trade? I am always looking for a market that is losing momentum, and then go the other way. ...... What do you think is the public's biggest misconception about the markets? That people who trade the markets gamble. I know floor traders that have made money for twenty straight years. You can't call that gambling. Another major misconception is that people always expect the market to react to news. For example, when John F. Kennedy was assassinated, the market initially broke very sharply, but then quickly rebounded to new highs. This price action baffled many people. Investors who sold on the news only to watch the market reverse blamed the institutions for pushing the market higher. What they failed to realize is that a market that is fundamentally and technically poised to move higher is not going to reverse direction because of a news item—even a dramatic one. Another item I would place under the category of misconceptions is the way the media reports the reasons for the market being down. They are always saying that the market is down because of profit taking. I think it would be wonderful if everybody was always taking profits. But, the truth is, most people lose money, and the reason markets go down is because they take their losses. I know educated people who watch the news and wonder why the hell they lost money when everyone else is taking profits. The media owes it to the public to report that the market goes down not only on profit taking, but on a lot of loss taking as well. What are the trading rules you live by? 1. Always do your homework. 2. Don't be arrogant. When you get arrogant, you forsake risk control. The best traders are the most humble. 3. Understand your limitations. Everyone has limitations—even the best traders. 4. Be your own person. Think against the herd, as they must lose in time. Don't trade until an opportunity presents itself. Knowing when to stay out of the markets is as important as knowing when to be in them. 5. Your strategy has to be flexible enough to change when the environment changes. The mistake most people make is they keep the same strategy all the time. They say, "Damn, the market didn't behave the way I thought it would." Why should it? Life and the markets just don't work that way. 6. Don't get too complacent once you have made profits. The toughest thing in the world is holding on to profits. That is because once you have attained a goal, you then set a second goal that is usually the same as the first one: to make more money. Consequently, for many people, attainment of that second goal is not as rewarding. They may begin to question what they really want from trading and trigger a self-destruct process in which they wind up losing. Any final advice you have for the beginning trader? You have to learn how to lose; it is more important than learning how to win. If you think you are always going to be a winner, when you lose, you will develop feelings of hostility and end up blaming the market instead of trying to learn why you lost. Limit losses quickly. To paraphrase from Reminiscences of a Stock Operator, most traders hold on to their losses too long because they hope the loss will not get larger. They take profits too soon, because they fear the profit will diminish. Instead, traders should fear a larger loss and hope for a larger profit. The cornerstone of Weinstein's trading approach is to wait for those trades in which everything appears to be lined up exactly right, and the odds of winning seem overwhelming. Even though most of us can never expect to remotely approach Weinstein's confidence in the trades he selects, the concept of waiting for only those trades one feels most confident about is sound advice that is echoed by a number of traders in this book.
Finally, Weinstein enjoys the support of a floor network that often puts him on the right side of the bidasked spread. 谁来说说这个？国内如实现？
99% ,high percentage winning. He seemed to describe it as there were no losing months in his trading history. I wanna know whether it's the reportor who describe 'high percentage' like this or Weinstein. Title like this might mislead the new trader. Liar.
I admired that the subjective trader like him who could manage the size of invest at his own risk. Confidently maximizing the profit when market went on well. In such circumstance, they became very aggressive in his 'strategy' or 'gut feeling', they would die to trade more. While machine driven trader will be less sensitive than humans, such that machine fell behind.
But there is only one Obama in the world. You won't be president of a country if you just imitate him, neither did a trader succeed by imitating a subjective trader like Wein. Just look at what he said in the interview, almost all the lines could be found in an ordinary trading books. But still someone need a god to worship, be it obmama or a trader like Wein. Be it a man or jesus. hehe
不是"质疑"Mark Weinstein,而且从另一个视角看待这个,"幸存者"样本的影响很大的(统计学方面一个缺点)！就象巴菲特曾经说过的一个"故事"——假设有1000只猩猩玩“掷硬币”的游戏，每年淘汰一半，第一年剩下500只猩猩。到了第六年已经只剩下15只猩猩，如果你只考察那剩下的15只猩猩的交易记录的话，那可是100%的胜率啊。而如果考察范围扩大到那些在第6年被淘汰而通过第5年关口的它们的胜率也达到5/6=83。3% 高胜率的策略都需要等待，也就导致样本偏小，从而导致“幸存样本”产生的影响很大。
I believe he appeared humble when trading, but arrogant when being interviewed , coming out to be gibberishing
Yes, Wein is that luckiest gorilla on the face of this planet that proved the downside of statistics. More luckilly it can talk as will.
所言极是，只要样本足够大，总会出现“神迹”般的交易记录 手动交易做得好可能只是因为幸运，而历史的交易记录毕竟有限，很可能不够用来估计风险。盈利原因未知，风险未知的情况下去做交易，只能寄希望于自己运气好，这也是我研究机械交易的原因之一。也许选择机械交易的人在这点上想法都差不多吧 我对手动交易并没有偏见，相信肯定存在这样的高手，但是别人如何能区分“幸运儿”和“高手”呢？范.萨普在《通向财务自由之路》里提到他对成功的投资者进行模拟，能够建立出模型。虽然他提炼出的交易观点似乎挺靠谱，但我现在很好奇那些统计上的“幸运儿”会不会给他的模型带来影响，还是他有办法进行筛选
应该不小，他做的非常短线，interview中是上千次交易有10多次亏损。这是口头说说的，没有记录可以查的。但也有过3个月的期权交易比赛，这是公开的，交易结果100％正确。（Mark说那三个月的走势很好）